Meaning · Object 01
Same State. Different Future.
Relational Transition Geometry (RTG) tests exact-present-state, equal-resource intervention twins where only the placement of latent recovery authority changes, asking whether relational placement changes held-out viable future options. C-MAPSS prediction is a separate evidentiary track under the same broader question.
Question
Can present state look the same while the structure of what remains possible carries additional predictive or causal information?
Strongest result · three tracks kept separate
C-MAPSS · PREDICTIVE SIGNAL: FD003 RMSE 39.0971→26.2617 (+32.83%); FD004 50.1103→47.5843 (+5.04%). FD002 was OBJECT_FAILURE with no scientific outcome.
RTG · MECHANISM SUPPORTED: controlled equal-budget RTS24 intervention twin, 30 selected states, 29 nonzero CHALLENGE states, T = 0.5624591503267974, 95% CI [0.3326645453503039, 0.7558825450242793].
RTG · MECHANISM REPLICATED: Gen448 on independent system pglib_opf_case60_c, T = 0.21785206258890463, 95% CI [0.11979333549127599, 0.34360525563157146]; independent full-network recomputation agreed.
The frozen RTG statistic is D_i = sign(Delta_PROBE_i) * Delta_CHALLENGE_i; T = mean_i(D_i) across the 30 sealed states.
Standing
BOUNDED_EMPIRICAL predictive signal · MECHANISM_SUPPORTED · MECHANISM_REPLICATED. Earlier NOT_IDENTIFIABLE history remains preserved.
Why it matters
Present condition alone can miss information carried by the geometry of available transitions. Prediction, mechanism, and replication answer different questions and do not pool.
Same broad question. Separate experimental contracts and claim ceilings.